MCNEESE SOCCER 2 HOUSTON BAPTIST 1
McNeese/LSU Comparisons
I started to think about all of the kudos I gave to Coach Eric Morris for his years with Mike Leach, and I realize there are several oddities about McNeese/UIW and LSU/Mississippi State. LSU absorbed one of their most embarrassing losses in Tiger Stadium in their home opener last year. K.J. Costello of Mississippi State threw for 600 yards and 5 touchdowns in a 44-34 road win over the Tigers. McNeese opened their home season facing a freshman QB(Cam Ward) who used the fall season to master Mike Leach/Eric Morris system. All he did was go 24-35 for 306 yards and 4 TD’s. It too was one of the most embarrassing home openers for McNeese.
We fast forward to September 25, 2021 and both programs face the teams that embarrassed them at home. Now they must go on the road to try to prove that they have improved since last year. So what we have is LSU playing the real Mike Leach, and McNeese playing the protégé of Mike Leach. The Tigers have the best situation since they have a strong desire to revenge the loss, will have about 33% of the stadium crowd, and are 2.5 point favorites. McNeese has a fairly long ride to San Antonio, playing a team coming off an FBS win, and are 8 point underdogs. It should be interesting to see which staff can come up with a plan to slow the Leach offense down.
LSU is in much better shape this year to stop the “Air Raid” offense because they lead the SEC in quarterback pressure. The Tiger defense is doing this with the lowest blitz rate in the SEC which means the front four are putting pressure on the quarterback. This means the Tigers will be allowed to drop 6 and 7 defenders into the pass coverage. SEC teams learned from the LSU loss last year that you cannot blitz regularly against Leach and keep the DBs in one- on- one coverage. Expect more zone coverage from LSU tomorrow.
Mississippi State is last in the nation in rushing with only 45 yards per game. Unfortunately, UIW is more balanced as witnessed last year in Cowboy Stadium. UIW rushed for 206 yards and threw for 306 yards, while State was 45 and 600 in comparison. Both teams were caught out of position and gave up some easy touchdowns. Tiger fans say it was all Bo Pelini’s fault, so we should see that 600 yards of passing cut in half on Saturday.
Now on to the predictions of Week Four:
WEEKEND PREDICTIONS
TEXAS A & M 28 ARKANSAS 24
TULANE 42 UAB 35
TROY 41 ULM 17
ULL 27 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 17
WISCONSIN 21 NOTRE DAME 17
FLORIDA 30 TENNEESSEE 24 (Watch for a letdown in this game; take the 19 points.)
NICHOLLS STATE 45 NORTH ALABAMA 24
LOUISIANA TECH 33 NORTH TEXAS 24
TCU 41 SMU 31
LSU 31 MISSISSIPPI STATE 28- Cade York will prove to be the difference as well as the LSU “sack machine.” LSU leads the nation with 17 sacks; and with no running game, State’s offensive line will crack at least three or four times.
MCNEESE AT UIW
This is an intriguing matchup of opposite styles, but UIW appears to have an edge in several categories. First of all, the last two games have been embarrassing for the Cowboys’ defense. The Pokes have given up 93 points in the past two games which averages out to 46.5 points per game. I have watched the 2018 tape and last spring, and it is obvious the Pokes have made more alignment and recognition mistakes than any other game. The last season of Lance Guidry’s defense was no better than 2021 Spring. There were several big plays on offense for UIW, and their plan appeared to be attacking the center of the field. Twice WRs ran down the hash marks and caught long touchdown passes.
The Cowboy defense has some tough decisions to make in preparing for this Cardinal offense. Do you want to play man to man(see LSU article) which allows for more blitzing, or do you want to try to get pressure from four guys and drop 6 and 7 in coverage. The decision will affect the Cardinal running game as well. LSU doesn’t have to worry about Leach’s running game because they are last in the nation. UIW rushed for 209 yards last year in Cowboy Stadium and returned the top three backs and offensive line. Man to man in the secondary makes a team more vulnerable to the run because guys are spread out and many have their backs turned to the play as it develops.
Zone gives more protection against the run and allows for DBs to come up the field as soon as a run has developed. It also allows for surrounding the runner and putting multiple hats on him. The downside to the zone is that those short passes will have a very high rate of completion due to the open holes in the zone. Choose your poison!
Having seen several UIW game films, I see a component similar to Cody Orgeron. Both Cody and Cam Ward like to leave the pocket and roll out. The most problems that Ward has had has been getting him out of the pocket and throwing across his body or throwing off his back foot. So if my eyes are not deceiving me, then the Pokes will probably have to pressure Ward and get him off his throwing lane. I can promise you if he sits in the pocket and throws his short zone passes regularly, he will hit 65-70% and run up 30 first downs and over 400 yards in passing.
McNeese will have to hope for some down and distance advantages because 2nd and 5 and 3rd and 1 will be very hard to stop. I do not see Ward as a QB who looks to run as much as Cody Orgeron. He would much rather run around and make a big play with his arm. This will be a game in which the Pokes will have to force at least two turnovers and force punts at least four times. UIW has punted only 9 times the entire season. The punting and kickoff coverage will be important because UIW takes very little time in scoring on short fields.
Offensively the Pokes have to take advantage of what UIW will give us. I do think McNeese must develop a running game to run some clock, but most UIW losses under Eric Morris have been shootouts. The offense has scored 48, 42, 56, 47, 45, 41, 40, and 42 in eight of their last nine games. Only Sam Houston shut down UIW last spring with only 14 points. The other losses have been 44-41, 49-47, and 75-45(Nicholls). I just don’t see the Pokes having that kind of fire power to score over 40 points.
So the formula to winning probably has to include first down chain moving plays as well as a few big plays. UIW has been hurt with their four man rush by quarterback draws and quarterbacks who scramble and look down field after avoiding the rush. This scenario seems more reasonable to me than expecting long bombs where WRs outrun the DBs.
The bottom line is McNeese is going to have to play their best defense of the year on Saturday, as well as improve the offensive production by about 100-150 yards beyond their 295 yards per game average. I would expect a win probably includes a big night from Mason Pierce on special teams.
I expect the Pokes to play with great emotion this game and push the Cardinals for four quarters. I just don’t see the perfect scenario where the OL provides 400 plus offense, the defense holds UIW to under 35 points, and the Pokes win the kicking game. I think it will take all three to come home victorious.
UIW 38 McNeese 31.
Zem's Gems 